The Treasury analysis gives two scenarios, described as "shock" and "severe shock". Both point to a recession in the short term, but in the case of the lesser "shock" scenario, while there would be an impact on the economy, the predicted recession would be very mild and well within the bounds of forecasting uncertainty.
The Treasury has released its analysis of the short-term effects of a vote to leave the European Union - that's what would happen in the two years after 23 June.
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